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Explained

Brief

Pay is rising faster than prices

After rising prices, regular pay is up 0.6% on a year ago, ONS says. See whether yours has kept up.

15 Sept 2026 · Report explained: Office for National Statistics, UK labour market: September 2026, released 15 September 2026

Ink is the publisher's own figure, as printed.
Pencil is our working, always shown beside it.

What “keeping up with prices” means

If prices rise 3% in a year, pay has to rise 3% just to buy the same things. Anything above that is a real gain. Anything below it is a real loss, even though the number on the payslip went up.

That comparison isn't ours to choose. ONS publishes pay growth itself, using . ONS calls CPIH its lead measure of inflation. Others, including the Bank of England, watch , so this page shows both.

The pay figure is : a of weekly pay, , compared with a year earlier.

How we got here

From 2008, the year of the financial crisis, to the end of 2014, ONS's after-prices figure was below zero in 70 of 84 months.

Prices then rose sharply in 2021 and 2022, with CPIH peaking in October 2022. Since June 2023, pay growth has been ahead of prices on ONS's figure.

Pay growth and price rises since 2008 % change on a year earlier · pay is a three-month average
datamap.uk Explained-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2008201020122014201620182020202220242026Financial crisisPrices rise fastest,October 2022Regular pay growthPrices (CPIH)

Source: Office for National Statistics (2 documents) · as published

Back to 2008?

Growth rates say how fast pay is changing. They don't say whether pay buys more than it used to. For that, ONS also publishes weekly regular pay with price rises taken off, measured in 2015 pounds using CPIH.

On that measure, regular pay was at its highest before the crisis in August 2007, at £473 a week. It has been above that level since November 2022, and was £495 a week in July 2026. It first got back above it in August 2020, then fell below it again.

Weekly regular pay, after price rises £ a week in 2015 pounds, seasonally adjusted
datamap.uk Explained£440£460£480£50020052010201520202025Pre-crisis high, August 2007Regular pay afterprices

Source: Office for National Statistics, Labour market statistics time series (LMS) (series A2FC) · as published

What people disagree about

Some say pay is recovering. In January 2026, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research wrote: “Workers continue to improve their living standards, with annual growth in real regular pay at 0.6 per cent (a solid 0.8 per cent including bonuses).” — National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), 20 January 2026

It has since warned: “As a consequence, real private sector wages will come under some pressure as CPI inflation picks up later in the year.” — National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 18 August 2026

Others say it has not recovered. “The Foundation notes that this stuttering long-term pay performance post 2008 has left average weekly earnings £278 below their pre-financial crisis path.” — Resolution Foundation, 19 May 2026

The figures can show both things at once: pay growing faster than prices now (ONS's after-prices figure has been above zero for the last 38 months), and how far pay fell behind before that. They can't settle which starting point is the fair one to judge recovery from.

Pay growth against price rises since 2019 % change on a year earlier · pay is a three-month average
datamap.uk Explained-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%20192020202120222023202420252026Regular pay growthPrices (CPIH)Prices (CPI)

Source: Office for National Statistics (3 documents) · as published

Private and public sector

In May to July 2026, regular pay grew 2.9% in the private sector and 6.3% in the public sector, compared with a year earlier.

Both figures leave out back pay, so a late pay award shows up as higher pay from then on, not as a one-off jump.

Regular pay growth by sector, against CPIH % change on a year earlier · pay is a three-month average
datamap.uk Explained-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%20192020202120222023202420252026Private sector regularpayPrices (CPIH)

Source: Office for National Statistics (2 documents) · as published

Pay by industry

The average hides big differences between kinds of work. Each chart shows regular pay growth in one industry, as ONS groups them, against the same CPIH line. All use the same scale.

  • Finance and business services

    2.7% in May to July 2026

    PayPrices

  • Manufacturing

    2.9% in May to July 2026

    PayPrices

  • Construction

    0.3% in May to July 2026

    PayPrices

  • Wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants

    3.1% in May to July 2026

    PayPrices

Source: Office for National Statistics, average weekly earnings by industry · each chart from 2019 to July 2026 · as published

The minimum wage

Averages say little about the lowest paid. The government sets the National Living Wage each April, usually on the advice of the Low Pay Commission.

It was £12.71 an hour from April 2026. If the 2019 rate had only risen with prices, our estimate is it would be about £10.82.

The age it applies from has changed over these years; each year's rate is for the oldest age band that year.

National Living Wage, and where prices alone would have taken it £ an hour, from April each year
datamap.uk Explained£8.00£9.00£10.00£11.00£12.00£13.0020192020202120222023202420252026National Living Wage,as setOur estimate: the 2019rate risen with prices

Source: GOV.UK (HM Government), National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage rates; Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation time series (MM23) (series L522) · calculated by datamap.uk

What the official forecasters expect

Two official bodies publish forecasts for pay and prices. They are forecasts, made on the dates shown, and not ours.

Office for Budget Responsibility, March 2026
202620272028
Average earnings growth3.4%2.4%2.1%
CPI inflation2.3%2.0%2.0%

Its earnings measure is total wages and salaries divided by the number of employees, not ONS’s survey figure used above. Calendar-year growth.

Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2026: detailed forecast tables, economy, published 3 March 2026 · a forecast, as published

Bank of England, July 2026
Q3 2026Q3 2027Q3 2028Q3 2029
CPI inflation2.9%2.6%1.8%1.9%
Private sector regular pay growth3.0%3.1%3.1%3.2%

Central projections for the third quarter of each year, compared with a year earlier. Its pay figure covers the private sector only.

Bank of England, Monetary Policy Report – July 2026, published 30 July 2026 · a forecast, as published

Where you stand

Averages are averages. Put in your own pay to see how it compares with prices over the same months.

Measure prices with

Our estimate

To buy the same as £28,000 did in July 2023, you would need about £31,000 now. Your pay has kept pace with prices, to within £100.

Your pay rose 10.7%. Prices (CPIH) rose 10.6%. Average regular pay across Great Britain rose 14.3%.

Measured with CPI instead: about £30,600 needed, £400 ahead.

How we worked this out

A price index tracks what the same basket of goods and services costs over time. We scale your old pay by how much the index rose between the two months. If your pay now is higher than that, it has kept up. We use the same months for your pay, prices and average pay, so nothing is compared across different dates.

The sum behind the estimate
July 2023July 2026
Your pay (you put in)£28,000£31,000
CPIH index (2015 = 100)129142.7
Average weekly regular pay£617£705
Our estimate: pay needed£28,000£30,974

£28,000 × 142.7 ÷ 129 = £30,974. Your pay now minus that: £31,000 − £30,974 = £26, shown to the nearest £100 so it isn't read as exact.

Price index: Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation time series (MM23) (series L522) · average pay: Office for National Statistics, Labour market statistics time series (LMS) (series KAI7), seasonally adjusted, single month

An illustration, not financial advice. It compares pay before tax and ignores changes in tax, hours or job. Your own costs may have risen faster or slower than the average basket.

What this doesn't tell you

  • Average pay can rise because the mix of jobs changes, such as when fewer low-paid jobs exist, not only because people get raises.
  • These figures are pay before tax. Frozen tax thresholds and other changes affect what people take home.
  • CPIH and CPI measure an average basket of goods and services. Your own costs, like rent or childcare, may have risen faster or slower.
  • Industry and sector figures are averages too, and smaller groups are revised more.
  • The self-employed are not in these pay figures.
  • How many people are in work, council by council, comes from a different ONS survey: see our release note on the labour market.

Sources and method

Sources

SourceReferenceReleasedLink
Bank of England Monetary Policy Report – July 2026
Forecast30 July 2026Source
GOV.UK (HM Government) National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage rates
April 2019 to April 202614 September 2026Source
Office for Budget Responsibility Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2026: detailed forecast tables, economy
Forecast3 March 2026Source
Office for National Statistics Labour market statistics time series (LMS) (series A2FA)
January 2019 to July 202615 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Labour market statistics time series (LMS) (series A2FC)
January 2005 to July 202615 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Labour market statistics time series (LMS) (series K5DQ)
January 2019 to July 202615 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Labour market statistics time series (LMS) (series K5DW)
January 2019 to July 202615 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Labour market statistics time series (LMS) (series K5DZ)
January 2019 to July 202615 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Labour market statistics time series (LMS) (series K5E4)
January 2019 to July 202615 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Labour market statistics time series (LMS) (series KAC3)
January 2019 to July 202615 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Labour market statistics time series (LMS) (series KAI7)
January 2000 to July 202615 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Labour market statistics time series (LMS) (series KAI9)
January 2008 to July 202615 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Labour market statistics time series (LMS) (series KAJ4)
January 2019 to July 202615 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Labour market statistics time series (LMS) (series KAJ7)
January 2019 to July 202615 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Consumer price inflation time series (MM23) (series D7BT)
January 1988 to August 202616 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Consumer price inflation time series (MM23) (series D7G7)
January 2019 to August 202616 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Consumer price inflation time series (MM23) (series L522)
January 1988 to August 202616 September 2026Dataset Data file
Office for National Statistics Consumer price inflation time series (MM23) (series L55O)
January 2008 to August 202616 September 2026Dataset Data file

Figures read from each publisher’s own file, with the position of every number recorded.

Drafted with the help of AI, checked against the publishers' own files, and read by a person before it goes up.

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